20 picks on today's board · 2026-06-17
Gary covers the full slate free — every pick with the reasoning behind it, every result graded in public. Winners, his conviction board, lives in the app.
LAST 30 DAYS 156–129 · ALL-TIME 1426–1283 (53%)
Recent wins · Full record →
Croatia has not lost to England by more than a single goal in competitive play since 2009, making the +2.5 cushion at -125 an exceptional value. Backed by an impressive 0.77 xGA and the veteran presence of Luka Modrić, Croatia's disciplined structure is well-equipped to limit an England team that is managing key injuries and load monitoring.
Portugal’s offensive machine is high-volume, averaging 17.5 shots and 6.33 shots on target per match over their recent fixtures. While Portugal creates significant xG (4.23 per match), DR Congo has maintained a resilient defensive profile, conceding only 0.5 goals per match over their last 10 internationals. This suggests a defense that effectively limits conversion but concedes opportunities. Facing an average of 6.33 shots on target from a Portugal side that dominates possession (67.17%), the DR Congo goalkeeper needs to save roughly 63% of those expected targets to clear the line of 4. Given the quality of Portugal's attackers and the high shot volume, the keeper should be active enough to reach this threshold as DR Congo focuses on shot suppression over possession. Risk: Portugal's clinical finishing turns early targets into goals rather than saves, or DR Congo’s low possession (48.75%) leads to a total defensive collapse where shots on target are limited by a lack of defensive structure.
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1,426–1,283
Every pick Gary has made, graded against final scores the next morning. No deletions, no restatements — losses stay on the books with the wins.
Win pct
53%
2,717 graded
Last 30
156–129
55% win
Streak
L3
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